Nifty Hovering In Indecisiveness

With the last hour’s bounce, the Nifty was able to lose positively. The Nifty gained by 81.15 points or 0.33 per cent and closed at 24833.60 The Metal and Realty indices were the top gainers with 1.21 per cent and 1.14 per cent, respectively. The Pharma, India Defence, FinNifty, IT, Private Bank, Small and Midcap, and Auto indices are up by over 0.50 per cent. The FMCG and PSU Bank indices were down by only 0.11 per cent and 0.13 per cent, respectively. The India VIX is down by 8.87 per cent to 16.42. The Market breadth is positive as 1510 advances and 1373 declines. About 57 stocks hit a new 52-week high, and 106 stocks traded in the upper circuit. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Waree Energies, Reliance, and GRSE were the top trading counters in terms of value.

On a monthly expiry day, the Nifty found support at the 20 DMA and bounced in the last hour. The rollovers played a crucial role. The Volumes were much lower, in fact, less than half of the previous day. The Nifty formed a small-bodied candle, indicating it is still indecisive about the direction. As the expiry traded adjustments, the index bounced over 125 points in the last hour. There is no directional change as the index is still in the defined range. Only a close below the 20 DMA of 24673 will be negative. By closing above the 8 EMA, the index has shown the internal trend strength. On a weekly chart, the Nifty is forming a small candle as it traded in a narrow range. It may continue the consolidation for another 1-3 weeks. On hourly chart, the MACD has given a fresh bullish signal. But, the RSI is in the neutral zone in all time frames. As the weekly expiry is over, expect more narrow range trade.

(The author is partner, Wealocity Analytics, Sebi-registered research analyst, chief mentor, Indus School of Technical Analysis, financial journalist, technical analyst and trainer)